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Varnsdorf vs Velvary

Czech Republic Czech Republic

3. CFL - Group B 2025/2026 Mestsky stadion v Kotline, Varnsdorf
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Sladovnik F.
17' Event
Senko K.
30'
Sub
Beranek A. In: Setka J.
Out: Beranek A.

AI Match Summary

The 3. CFL - Group B 2025/2026 game between Varnsdorf and Velvary finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varnsdorf.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Varnsdorf
20%
Draws
40%
Velvary
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varnsdorf come out ahead of Velvary on wins alone.
  • Varnsdorf are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Varnsdorf have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Varnsdorf Clean Sheet 20%
Velvary Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varnsdorf Velvary
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 19 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 2.28 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.04
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 3. CFL - Group B
Varnsdorf vs Velvary
4:3
Nov 22, 2025 3. CFL - Group B
Velvary vs Varnsdorf
1:2
Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly
Varnsdorf vs Velvary
4:3
Feb 10, 2024 Club Friendly
Varnsdorf vs Velvary
0:0
Jul 24, 2022 Club Friendly
Varnsdorf vs Velvary
8:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varnsdorf Compare

Top Goalscorer Ahile T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Senko K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Velvary Compare

Top Goalscorer Sladovnik F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sow I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varnsdorf 49 / 100
Velvary 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varnsdorf Velvary

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varnsdorf Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varnsdorf scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Velvary's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 5.20 goals.

Recent resilience: Varnsdorf stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varnsdorf VS Velvary
2.75 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varnsdorf

(Home)
12 Sept
Zapy
4 : 4
Varnsdorf
06 Sept
Varnsdorf
3 : 1
Velke Hamry
29 Aug
Neratovice
1 : 2
Varnsdorf
25 Aug
Varnsdorf
1 : 0
Usti nad Labem
15 Aug
Chrudim
3 : 1
Varnsdorf
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Velvary

(Away)
12 Sept
Velvary
2 : 1
Tempo Prague
06 Sept
Ostrov
3 : 1
Velvary
29 Aug
Velvary
2 : 1
Karlovy Vary
21 Aug
Hvezda Cheb
3 : 4
Velvary
15 Aug
Velvary
1 : 1
Slany
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Ceska Lipa 32 29 1 2 86:24 88
2 Zapy 32 23 5 4 72:27 74
3 Banik Most-Sous 32 20 4 8 60:34 64
4 Hradec Kralove B 32 19 4 9 70:47 61
5 Teplice B 32 14 8 10 46:42 50
6 Benatky n. Jiz. 32 12 8 12 59:54 44
7 Pardubice B 32 12 7 13 69:57 43
8 Jablonec B 32 11 6 15 49:62 39
9 Mlada Boleslav B 32 10 8 14 39:50 38
10 Liberec B 32 10 7 15 72:64 37
11 Varnsdorf 32 10 7 15 46:65 37
12 Neratovice 32 9 9 14 44:66 36
13 Brozany 32 8 10 14 38:58 34
14 Velke Hamry 32 7 10 15 45:57 31
15 Usti nad Orlici 32 7 10 15 35:55 31
16 Velvary 32 7 4 21 46:82 25
17 Kolin 32 4 12 16 36:68 24
Promotion - 3. CFL - Play Offs (Main)