Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varzim vs Sanjoanense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Varzim SC, Póvoa de Varzim
Varzim Logo

Varzim

2 - 0
FT
Sanjoanense Logo

Sanjoanense

Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Gomes V.
42' Event
Franca F.
51'
Rebelo M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Varzim and Sanjoanense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Varzim
30%
Draws
19%
Sanjoanense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Varzim carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Varzim a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Varzim have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%
Sanjoanense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varzim Sanjoanense
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 4
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.37 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Sanjoanense
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Varzim
3:3
Jan 12, 2025 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Varzim
1:2
Sep 28, 2024 Liga 3
Varzim vs Sanjoanense
3:0
Jan 21, 2024 Liga 3
Sanjoanense vs Varzim
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varzim Compare

Top Goalscorer Franca F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chamito
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sanjoanense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varzim 95 / 100
Sanjoanense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varzim Sanjoanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sanjoanense has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Varzim remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Varzim's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Varzim VS Sanjoanense
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varzim

(Home)
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1
AD Marco 09
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 6

Sanjoanense

(Away)
30 Aug
Sanjoanense
3 : 0
Pacos de Brandao
23 Aug
SC Salgueiros
1 : 1
Sanjoanense
16 Aug
Sanjoanense
1 : 1
Beira Mar
18 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 1
AD Fafe
15 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 3
FC Felgueiras
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 20:16 29
2 Amarante FC 18 8 5 5 19:17 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 23:15 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 26:17 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 22:12 27
6 Braga B 18 6 7 5 16:17 25
7 AD Fafe 18 6 6 6 23:21 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 15:22 19
9 Sao Joao de Ver 18 2 8 8 11:26 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 20:32 13
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 18 12 2 4 27:16 38
2 Mafra 18 9 7 2 28:19 34
3 Academica 18 7 7 4 29:18 28
4 Santarem 18 6 7 5 15:14 25
5 Atletico CP 18 6 4 8 16:17 22
6 Lusitano GC 18 6 4 8 19:19 22
7 Amora 18 5 6 7 19:22 21
8 Caldas SC 18 6 3 9 17:23 21
9 1º Dezembro 18 3 8 7 13:21 17
10 Covilha 18 2 8 8 10:24 14
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)