Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vasco vs Athletico-PR

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Sao Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Portilla J.
7'
Thiago Mendes
11'
Sub
Teran C. In: Leo Derik
Out: Teran C.

AI Match Summary

Vasco in this Serie A Betano matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vasco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Vasco
44%
Draws
20%
Athletico-PR
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Athletico-PR lately — more wins on the board than Vasco.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Vasco Clean Sheet 23%
Athletico-PR Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vasco Athletico-PR
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Athletico-PR
1:0
Sep 12, 2024 Copa Betano do Brasil
Athletico-PR vs Vasco
2:2
Aug 29, 2024 Copa Betano do Brasil
Vasco vs Athletico-PR
2:1
Aug 27, 2024 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Athletico-PR
2:1
May 5, 2024 Serie A Betano
Athletico-PR vs Vasco
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Mendes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Athletico-PR Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vasco 37 / 100
Athletico-PR 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vasco Athletico-PR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ATH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vasco scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Athletico-PR has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Vasco remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vasco VS Athletico-PR
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vasco

(Home)
25 Jul
Vasco
1 : 1
Mirassol
22 Jul
Ind. Medellin
2 : 2
Vasco
16 Jul
Vitoria
1 : 0
Vasco
31 May
Vasco
0 : 1
Atletico-MG
27 May
Vasco
3 : 0
Barracas Central
Page 1 of 6

Athletico-PR

(Away)
25 Jul
Athletico-PR
2 : 0
Internacional
23 Jul
Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Athletico-PR
11 Jul
Bragantino
2 : 1
Athletico-PR
09 Jul
Boca Juniors
1 : 0
Athletico-PR
30 May
Athletico-PR
1 : 0
Mirassol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Palmeiras19135133:1444
2Flamengo RJ18114335:1637
3Athletico-PR20113628:1936
4Fluminense1995529:2432
5Bragantino1993726:2030
6Bahia1986528:2430
7Corinthians1976621:1927
8Cruzeiro1976626:2927
9Botafogo RJ1975733:3226
10Coritiba1975725:2726
11Vitoria1975722:2526
12Sao Paulo1974824:2225
13Atletico-MG1974823:2425
14Santos2057829:3322
15Internacional2056922:2621
16Gremio1956821:2521
17Vasco2056923:3121
18Mirassol1955921:2620
19Remo1946921:3218
20Chapecoense-SC20171219:4110
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)