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Stadium Background

Vasco vs Coritiba

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Sao Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Colidio F.
44' Event
Bruno Duarte
Assist: Gomez A.
46'
Sub
Fabinho In: Paulo Roberto
Out: Fabinho

AI Match Summary

The Serie A Betano game between Vasco and Coritiba finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vasco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Vasco
20%
Draws
33%
Coritiba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vasco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vasco come out ahead of Coritiba on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Vasco taking it.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Vasco Clean Sheet 16%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vasco Coritiba
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 11 10
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.35 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.82 1.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Coritiba
5:0
Apr 1, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Vasco
1:1
Sep 21, 2023 Serie A Betano
Vasco vs Coritiba
5:1
May 11, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Vasco
1:1
Oct 16, 2021 Serie B
Vasco vs Coritiba
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Colidio F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno Duarte
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.91

Coritiba Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.82

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vasco 84 / 100
Coritiba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vasco Coritiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vasco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Vasco found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Coritiba conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: Vasco stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vasco VS Coritiba
1.5 Goals Scored 1.71
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.14
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 86%
50% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Vasco

(Home)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
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Coritiba

(Away)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1
Corinthians
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 36:32 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 41:40 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Bragantino 27 10 6 11 33:31 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 32:30 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)