Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vasco vs Ind. Medellin

South America South America

Copa Sudamericana Sao Januário, Rio de Janeiro
Vasco Logo

Vasco

1 - 0
FT
Ind. Medellin Logo

Ind. Medellin

Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Spinelli C.
39'
Varela J.
57'
Sub
Lucas Piton In: Cuiabano
Out: Lucas Piton
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vasco
20%
Draws
40%
Ind. Medellin
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin have won more games recently than Vasco.
  • Win probability leans Vasco's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Ind. Medellin arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vasco, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vasco Clean Sheet 68%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vasco Ind. Medellin
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.45 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Vasco vs Ind. Medellin
1:0
Jul 22, 2026 Copa Sudamericana
Ind. Medellin vs Vasco
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vasco Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago Mendes
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Ind. Medellin Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vasco 86 / 100
Ind. Medellin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vasco Ind. Medellin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vasco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vasco scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Ind. Medellin has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Vasco has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vasco VS Ind. Medellin
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vasco

(Home)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
15 Sept
Vasco
2 : 0
Santa Fe
12 Sept
Gremio
1 : 2
Vasco
08 Sept
Santa Fe
0 : 0
Vasco
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
Page 1 of 6

Ind. Medellin

(Away)
22 Sept
Ind. Medellin
2 : 1
Jaguares de Cordoba
18 Sept
Bucaramanga
2 : 2
Ind. Medellin
12 Sept
Chico
2 : 1
Ind. Medellin
10 Sept
Dep. Pasto
1 : 4
Ind. Medellin
04 Sept
Dep. Pereira
0 : 3
Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Boca Juniors 2
O Higgins 1
TBD -
Recoleta -
Bolivar 4
Gremio 2
TBD -
Sao Paulo -
Santa Fe 5
Caracas 0
TBD -
River Plate -
Ind. Medellin 2
Vasco 3
TBD -
Olimpia Asuncion -
Sporting Cristal 0
Bragantino 1
TBD -
Atletico-MG -
Universidad Central 3
Santos 8
TBD -
Macara -
Club Nacional 2
Tigre 4
TBD -
Montevideo City -
Lanus 2
Cienciano 4
TBD -
Botafogo RJ -
1/8-finals
Boca Juniors 7
Recoleta 1
Bolivar 2
Sao Paulo 4
Santa Fe 2
River Plate 1
Vasco 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Bragantino 2
Atletico-MG 3
Santos 2
Macara 1
Tigre 1
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 6
Botafogo RJ 2
Quarter-finals
Boca Juniors 2
Sao Paulo 1
Santa Fe 0
Vasco 2
Atletico-MG 5
Santos 4
Montevideo City 3
Cienciano 2
Semi-finals
Boca Juniors -
Vasco -
Atletico-MG -
Montevideo City -
Final
TBD -
TBD -