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Vastese vs Porto Sant'Elpidio Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

49' Event
Martiniello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 game between Vastese and Porto Sant'Elpidio finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vastese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Vastese
15%
Draws
46%
Porto Sant'Elpidio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Porto Sant'Elpidio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vastese come out ahead of Porto Sant'Elpidio on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Vastese Clean Sheet 20%
Porto Sant'Elpidio Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastese Porto Sant'Elpidio
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 4
Draws 8 3
Losses 14 23
Goals Scored 0.91 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
1:0
Feb 7, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs Vastese
0:1
Mar 29, 2020 Serie D - Group F
Porto Sant'Elpidio vs Vastese
0:0
Nov 17, 2019 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Porto Sant'Elpidio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastese Compare

Top Goalscorer Martiniello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Porto Sant'Elpidio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastese 36 / 100
Porto Sant'Elpidio 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastese Porto Sant'Elpidio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Porto Sant'Elpidio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Porto Sant'Elpidio let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Vastese scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Vastese went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vastese VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastese

(Home)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
Page 1 of 7

Porto Sant'Elpidio

(Away)
19 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
2 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Jun
Vastese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
13 Jun
Porto Sant'Elpidio
3 : 2
Castelnuovo Vomano
06 Jun
Campobasso
1 : 1
Porto Sant'Elpidio
30 May
Agnonese
1 : 0
Porto Sant'Elpidio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 21 9 4 63:29 72
2 Notaresco Calcio 34 18 10 6 59:34 64
3 Pineto 34 15 11 8 45:33 56
4 Cynthialbalonga 34 14 14 6 51:35 56
5 Matese 34 15 11 8 46:38 56
6 Castelfidardo 34 14 13 7 46:33 55
7 Recanatese 34 13 11 10 62:45 50
8 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 14 8 12 53:53 50
9 Vastese 34 12 13 9 45:37 48
10 Montegiorgio 34 13 7 14 42:42 46
11 FC Rieti 34 12 8 14 38:42 44
12 Aprilia 34 11 11 12 43:49 44
13 Roma City 34 8 16 10 40:41 40
14 US Tolentino 34 9 13 12 52:53 40
15 Vastogirardi 34 10 10 14 46:51 40
16 Giulianova 34 7 10 17 33:50 31
17 Porto Sant'Elpidio 34 4 5 25 22:63 17
18 Agnonese 34 3 6 25 25:83 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2020/2021 (Play Offs)