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Vastogirardi vs Matese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Iacullo F.
88'
Gargiulo G.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 game between Vastogirardi and Matese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vastogirardi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Vastogirardi
15%
Draws
49%
Matese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Matese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vastogirardi come out ahead of Matese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vastogirardi's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Vastogirardi Clean Sheet 68%
Matese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastogirardi Matese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 5
Draws 7 8
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 0.8 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Matese
1:0
Nov 19, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Matese vs Vastogirardi
2:2
Apr 2, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Matese vs Vastogirardi
3:0
Nov 20, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Matese
0:0
Feb 13, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Matese vs Vastogirardi
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastogirardi Compare

Top Goalscorer Iacullo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Matese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastogirardi 50 / 100
Matese 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastogirardi Matese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vastogirardi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matese has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Matese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Vastogirardi's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vastogirardi VS Matese
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastogirardi

(Home)
05 May
Roma City
4 : 2
Vastogirardi
28 Apr
Vastogirardi
1 : 4
Tivoli Calcio
21 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 2
Vastogirardi
14 Apr
Vastogirardi
0 : 1
Aquila Calcio
07 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
3 : 1
Vastogirardi
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Matese

(Away)
05 May
Matese
0 : 0
Calcio Chieti
28 Apr
Real Monterotondo
3 : 0
Matese
21 Apr
Matese
0 : 2
Termoli
14 Apr
United Riccione
2 : 0
Matese
07 Apr
Matese
2 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Campobasso 34 20 10 4 55:29 70
2 Aquila Calcio 34 20 8 6 40:22 68
3 Avezzano 34 17 8 9 50:33 59
4 Sambenedettese 34 15 13 6 57:36 58
5 Roma City 34 14 10 10 56:37 52
6 Atletico Ascoli 34 12 14 8 39:33 50
7 Vigor Senigallia 34 13 10 11 57:50 49
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 12 10 35:34 48
9 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 12 11 37:38 45
10 Termoli 34 11 10 13 30:36 43
11 Fossombrone 34 8 17 9 28:28 41
12 AS Sora 34 10 11 13 37:37 41
13 Real Monterotondo 34 12 5 17 42:60 41
14 Tivoli Calcio 34 10 7 17 38:55 37
15 United Riccione 34 10 7 17 48:51 37
16 Fano 34 6 14 14 35:49 32
17 Vastogirardi 34 7 8 19 26:51 29
18 Matese 34 6 8 20 20:51 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2023/2024 (Play Out)