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Vastogirardi vs Roma City

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vastogirardi play Roma City in the Serie D - Group F 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vastogirardi averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Roma City averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Vastogirardi won 1, Roma City won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 5, 2024 ended 4:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Vastogirardi and 0.93 for Roma City. This points to a Roma City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Vastogirardi
30%
Draws
41%
Roma City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Roma City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Vastogirardi picked up more points recently compared to Roma City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Vastogirardi Clean Sheet 24%
Roma City Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastogirardi Roma City
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 6 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 17 15
Goals Scored 0.8 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.47 1

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Roma City vs Vastogirardi
4:2
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Roma City
0:3
Feb 26, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Roma City vs Vastogirardi
1:1
Oct 23, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Roma City
1:1
Apr 14, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vastogirardi vs Roma City
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastogirardi Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Roma City Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Renzo L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiamn P. S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastogirardi 31 / 100
Roma City 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastogirardi Roma City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Roma City or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vastogirardi attacking → ← attacking Roma City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vastogirardi scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Roma City let in goals in 69% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Vastogirardi went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Roma City lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 43
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Campobasso342010455:2970
2Aquila Calcio34208640:2268
3Avezzano34178950:3359
4Sambenedettese341513657:3658
5Roma City3414101056:3752
6Atletico Ascoli341214839:3350
7Vigor Senigallia3413101157:5049
8Calcio Chieti3412121035:3448
9Notaresco Calcio3411121137:3845
10Termoli3411101330:3643
11Fossombrone34817928:2841
12AS Sora3410111337:3741
13Real Monterotondo341251742:6041
14Tivoli Calcio341071738:5537
15United Riccione341071748:5137
16Fano346141435:4932
17Vastogirardi34781926:5129
18Matese34682020:5126