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Veles Moscow vs Shinnik Yaroslavl - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL Avangard Stadium, Domodedovo
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Veles Moscow host Shinnik Yaroslavl in the FNL. This one's hard to separate. Shinnik Yaroslavl have shipped 0.82 goals a game lately, while Veles Moscow have conceded 1.21 and scored 1.11. Head-to-head, Veles Moscow have won 2 to Shinnik Yaroslavl's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 29, 2023, ending 1:1. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 1.19) point toward Shinnik Yaroslavl. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Veles Moscow
30%
Draws
47%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shinnik Yaroslavl

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Shinnik Yaroslavl average 1.29 goals a game right now, well clear of Veles Moscow's 1.11.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular FNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Veles Moscow Clean Sheet 20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Veles Moscow Shinnik Yaroslavl
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 15
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.11 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.21 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2023 FNL
Veles Moscow vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
1:1
Oct 9, 2022 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles Moscow
2:0
Nov 29, 2020 FNL
Veles Moscow vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
4:2
Aug 22, 2020 FNL
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles Moscow
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Veles Moscow 36 / 100
Shinnik Yaroslavl 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Veles Moscow Shinnik Yaroslavl

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shinnik Yaroslavl Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Veles Moscow's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Shinnik Yaroslavl has conceded goals in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Veles Moscow stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Veles Moscow VS Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Veles Moscow

(Home)
10 Oct
Ural
1 : 2
Veles Moscow
04 Oct
Veles Moscow
1 : 2
Ulyanovsk
17 Sept
Torpedo Moscow
1 : 1
Veles Moscow
14 Sept
Veles Moscow
1 : 2
PFC Sochi
09 Sept
FC Murom
1 : 0
Veles Moscow
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Shinnik Yaroslavl

(Away)
10 Oct
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0
Tekstilshtik
27 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 0
SKA Khabarovsk
18 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0 : 1
Kamaz
14 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1 : 1
Ural
10 Sept
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2 : 0
Torpedo Moscow
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Veles Moscow 14 8 2 4 19:17 26
3 Ural 13 7 4 2 21:8 25
4 S. Kostroma 13 7 3 3 18:13 24
5 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Arsenal Tula 13 4 4 5 15:24 16
10 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
11 Chelyabinsk 13 4 3 6 17:21 15
12 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
13 Ulyanovsk 13 4 2 7 16:19 14
14 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
15 Neftekhimik 13 4 0 9 9:19 12
16 Kamaz 13 2 4 7 14:22 10
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 13 1 4 8 14:26 7
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
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