Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 9 2009/2010

CD Baza

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Velez play CD Baza in the Tercera Division - Group 9 2009/2010. It looks like a close match. Recently, Velez averaged 0.81 goals scored and 1.94 conceded. CD Baza averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Velez won 1, CD Baza won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 13, 2011 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Velez and 1.19 for CD Baza. This points to a CD Baza double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Velez

30%

Draws

41%

CD Baza

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Baza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Velez picked up more points recently compared to CD Baza.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 36%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Velez Clean Sheet 20%

CD Baza Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Velez	CD Baza
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	4	8
Draws	10	6
Losses	17	16
Goals Scored	0.81	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.94	1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

CD Baza vs Velez

Possession: 42% - 46% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Oct 3, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Velez vs CD Baza

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

1:1

Apr 18, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Velez vs CD Baza

Possession: 51% - 41% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Dec 13, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

CD Baza vs Velez

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

Feb 8, 2009 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

CD Baza vs Velez

Possession: 48% - 54% Cards: 0 - 4

2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Velez 30 / 100

CD Baza 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Velez CD Baza

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: CD Baza or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.9%

3.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Velez attacking → ← attacking CD Baza

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Velez scored in 52% of their last 31 games.

CD Baza let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Velez went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

CD Baza lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 30

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mancha	36	20	8	8	53:26	68
2	Motril	36	18	12	6	54:24	66
3	El Palo	36	19	6	11	59:44	63
4	Almeria B	36	17	10	9	62:37	61
5	CD Ronda	36	17	9	10	64:51	60
6	Malaga B	36	16	11	9	56:44	59
7	Comarca	36	17	6	13	52:34	57
8	Ciudad de Vicar	36	13	14	9	52:48	53
9	Loja	36	13	10	13	42:40	49
10	Antequera	36	11	14	11	43:38	47
11	Velez	36	14	5	17	50:52	47
12	CD Alhaurino	36	12	9	15	53:54	45
13	Adra	36	12	9	15	47:59	45
14	Santa Fe	36	11	8	17	40:55	41
15	UD Carboneras	36	10	8	18	43:63	38
16	Huetor Tajar	36	11	5	20	44:67	38
17	CD Baza	36	9	10	17	36:54	37
18	Arenas Armilla	36	9	8	19	33:63	35
19	Ejido 2	19	7	3	9	21:22	24
20	Vera CD	19	1	7	11	17:46	10