Sport Picks

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Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Amador K. In: Kilani P.
Out: Amador K.
46' Event
Lora S.
Assist: Dominguez A.
53'
Arellano A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX game between Venados FC and Alebrijes de Oaxaca finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Venados FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Venados FC
6%
Draws
4%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Venados FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Venados FC come out ahead of Alebrijes de Oaxaca on wins alone.
  • Model gives Venados FC a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 68%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Venados FC Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 7 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:3
Aug 30, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
4:5
Feb 22, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Sep 8, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Venados FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lora S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dominguez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Venados FC 95 / 100
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Venados FC Alebrijes de Oaxaca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Alebrijes de Oaxaca conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Venados FC has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Attacking prowess: Venados FC scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Venados FC VS Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Venados FC

(Home)
25 Jul
Venados FC
3 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2
Venados FC
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1
Leones Negros
05 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1
Venados FC
28 Mar
Venados FC
4 : 1
Atlante
Page 1 of 6

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

(Away)
25 Jul
Venados FC
3 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2
Jaiba Brava
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1
Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venados FC11003:03
2Club Atletico Morelia11004:23
3Leones Negros11004:23
4Alacranes de Durango11001:03
5Correcaminos10103:31
6Zacatecas Mineros10103:31
7Cruz Azul Hidalgo10100:01
8Jaiba Brava10100:01
9Tapatio10100:01
10Piratas10100:01
11Dorados de Sinaloa00000:00
12Cancun00000:00
13Tepatitlan de Morelos10010:10
14Tlaxcala10012:40
15Atletico La Paz10012:40
16Alebrijes de Oaxaca10010:30
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)