Sport Picks
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Amador K. In: Kilani P.
Out: Amador K.
46'
46'
Lora S.
Assist: Dominguez A.
53'
53'
Arellano A.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX game between Venados FC and Alebrijes de Oaxaca finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Venados FC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
53%
15%
32%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Venados FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Venados FC come out ahead of Alebrijes de Oaxaca on wins alone.
- Model gives Venados FC a 53% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 68%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venados FC | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.72 | 1.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:0
Feb 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:3
Aug 30, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
4:5
Feb 22, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Sep 8, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Venados FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Lora S.
2 Goals Assists Leader Dominguez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venados FC 95 / 100
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venados FC Alebrijes de Oaxaca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Venados FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
Alebrijes de Oaxaca let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.
Venados FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Venados FC VS Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Venados FC
(Home) 10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1 Leones Negros
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1 Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Venados FC
1 : 1 Leones Negros
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
20 Aug
Venados FC
4 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
08 Aug
Venados FC
3 : 2 Tapatio
Page 1 of 3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Away) 09 Oct
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 : 1 Correcaminos
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
20 Sept
Cancun
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
06 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
23 Aug
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
06 Aug
Tlaxcala
0 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28:17 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27:22 | 20 |
| 5 | Zacatecas Mineros | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25:21 | 18 |
| 6 | Cancun | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21:17 | 18 |
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 18 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 18 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23:25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:19 | 12 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14:19 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
