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Venados FC vs Atlante

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Galvan P.
5'
Tejeda D.
6'
Meza H.

AI Match Summary

Venados FC in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Venados FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Venados FC
17%
Draws
13%
Atlante
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Venados FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Venados FC haven't matched Atlante's recent run of results.
  • Venados FC are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 17%
Atlante Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Venados FC Atlante
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 9 13
Draws 7 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.17 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Atlante
4:1
Oct 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Venados FC
3:0
Feb 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Atlante
1:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atlante vs Venados FC
1:0
Feb 28, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Atlante
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Venados FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lora S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calero J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Atlante Compare

Top Goalscorer Puente L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Venados FC 66 / 100
Atlante 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Venados FC Atlante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Venados FC scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Atlante's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Venados FC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Venados FC VS Atlante
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.17 Goals Conceded 1.25
83% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Venados FC

(Home)
18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2
Venados FC
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1
Leones Negros
05 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1
Venados FC
28 Mar
Venados FC
4 : 1
Atlante
21 Mar
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0
Venados FC
Page 1 of 6

Atlante

(Away)
17 Jul
Necaxa
2 : 1
Atlante
10 Jul
Atlante
3 : 3
Toluca
04 Jul
Atlante
1 : 1
Monterrey
02 Jul
New Mexico
3 : 3
Atlante
28 Jun
Juarez
2 : 0
Atlante
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tepatitlan de Morelos1475221:1026
2Cancun1474324:1725
3Club Atletico Morelia1472518:1223
4Atletico La Paz1457222:1222
5Jaiba Brava1463515:1521
6Zacatecas Mineros1463519:2021
7Tapatio1462628:2420
8Atlante1455421:1720
9Irapuato1462627:2420
10Tlaxcala1455416:1720
11Venados FC1444625:2516
12Alebrijes de Oaxaca1444620:2916
13Dorados de Sinaloa1434717:2813
14Correcaminos1433814:2712
15Leones Negros1425715:2511
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)