Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Venlo vs Jong Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Seacon - De Koel, Venlo
Our Tip

Match Events

39'
Ouazane A.
44'
Sbai Y.
47'
Joosten T.

AI Match Summary

Jong Ajax in this Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jong Ajax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Venlo
6%
Draws
4%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Venlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Venlo lately — more wins on the board than Jong Ajax.
  • Model gives Venlo a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Venlo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Venlo Clean Sheet 20%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Venlo Jong Ajax
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.75 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong Ajax
0:1
Sep 26, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Venlo
2:4
Mar 7, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong Ajax
1:0
Nov 1, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Venlo
0:1
May 3, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong Ajax
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Venlo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalokoh D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Venlo 85 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Venlo Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong Ajax has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Venlo found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Venlo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Venlo VS Jong Ajax
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Venlo

(Home)
21 Jul
FC Viktoria Koln
5 : 3
Venlo
18 Jul
Venlo
2 : 1
Leuven B
11 Jul
De Treffers
2 : 2
Venlo
07 Jul
Venlo
2 : 1
Bochum II
04 Jul
Venlo
3 : 2
B. Monchengladbach II
Page 1 of 6

Jong Ajax

(Away)
17 Jul
Jong AZ Alkmaar
3 : 0
Jong Ajax
24 Apr
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Jong Utrecht
17 Apr
Jong PSV
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
13 Apr
Jong Ajax
1 : 2
TOP Oss
06 Apr
Vitesse
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Den Haag38292790:3789
2Cambuur38239675:4878
3Willem II382081059:4268
4De Graafschap381891174:5863
5Almere City381841678:6358
6Waalwijk3816101271:5958
7Jong PSV381751666:6456
8Roda3814131159:5455
9Den Bosch381491565:6951
10Dordrecht3812111548:5647
11Eindhoven FC381451951:6947
12Jong Utrecht3812101658:6246
13Venlo381361950:5845
14FC Emmen381291758:7245
15Vitesse3815111264:5544
16TOP Oss3811111654:6444
17Jong AZ Alkmaar381242261:7640
18Helmond Sport381091942:6239
19Maastricht389111841:7338
20Jong Ajax38982150:7335
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)