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Ventspils vs BFC Daugavpils

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Optibet Virsliga 2021 Ventspils 2. pamatskolas stadions, Ventspils
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Afanasjevs V.
41'
Lotcikovs A.
44'
Doumbia A.

AI Match Summary

The Optibet Virsliga 2021 game between Ventspils and BFC Daugavpils finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward BFC Daugavpils.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Ventspils
30%
Draws
47%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • BFC Daugavpils carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ventspils are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Optibet Virsliga 2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Ventspils Clean Sheet 20%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ventspils BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 12 38
Wins 2 17
Draws 2 8
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.08 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 31, 2021 Virsliga
Ventspils vs BFC Daugavpils
0:0
Aug 22, 2021 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ventspils
0:0
Jun 17, 2021 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ventspils
3:2
Apr 11, 2021 Virsliga
Ventspils vs BFC Daugavpils
0:1
Nov 4, 2020 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ventspils
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ventspils Compare

Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.48

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Afanasjevs V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ventspils 42 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ventspils BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: BFC Daugavpils conceded in 71% of 38 recent games.

Ventspils went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ventspils found the back of the net in 42% of recent matches (12 games).

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

- VS BFC Daugavpils
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ventspils

(Home)
29 Sept
Noah Jurmala
0 : 3
Ventspils
17 Jun
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 2
Ventspils
29 May
Ventspils
0 : 0
Spartaks Jurmala
23 May
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Ventspils
17 May
Ventspils
2 : 2
Noah Jurmala
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BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
08 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0
Tukums 2000
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 28 20 6 2 65:22 66
2 Valmiera 28 19 5 4 54:19 62
3 FK Liepaja 28 16 3 9 47:26 51
4 Riga FC 28 14 8 6 54:26 50
5 Spartaks Jurmala 28 11 2 15 40:41 35
6 BFC Daugavpils 28 9 5 14 37:53 32
7 FK Metta 28 5 5 18 33:55 20
8 Noah Jurmala 28 1 0 27 8:96 3
9 Ventspils 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2022/2023 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa Conference League 2022/2023 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2022 (Main)