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Verdy vs Chiba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Matheus
42'
Hidaka M.
45'
Fukuda Y.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Verdy
35%
Draws
30%
Chiba
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Verdy have won more games recently than Chiba.
  • Chiba are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Verdy Clean Sheet 16%
Chiba Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Verdy Chiba
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 6 5
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.07 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 J1 League
Verdy vs Chiba
1:1
Apr 18, 2026 J1 League
Verdy vs Chiba
1:0
Apr 4, 2026 J1 League
Chiba vs Verdy
3:2
Nov 26, 2023 J2 League
Verdy vs Chiba
2:1
Oct 22, 2023 J2 League
Verdy vs Chiba
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Verdy Compare

Top Goalscorer Hayashi N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Chiba Compare

Top Goalscorer Erison
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Verdy 28 / 100
Chiba 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Verdy Chiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chiba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Chiba conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Verdy scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Verdy has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Verdy VS Chiba
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Verdy

(Home)
01 Nov
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 2
Verdy
24 Oct
Verdy
3 : 1
Avispa Fukuoka
21 Oct
Yokohama F. Marinos
2 : 2
Verdy
17 Oct
Verdy
0 : 4
FC Tokyo
11 Oct
Verdy
0 : 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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Chiba

(Away)
01 Nov
Chiba
3 : 0
Avispa Fukuoka
25 Oct
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 2
Chiba
21 Oct
Urawa Reds
3 : 2
Chiba
17 Oct
Chiba
0 : 0
Yokohama F. Marinos
11 Oct
Chiba
1 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Tokyo 13 9 3 1 31:8 30
2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 13 9 2 2 32:10 29
3 Machida Zelvia 13 8 4 1 30:10 28
4 Kashiwa Reysol 13 9 1 3 29:19 28
5 Vissel Kobe 13 8 2 3 21:12 26
6 Kashima Antlers 13 7 2 4 29:22 23
7 Kawasaki Frontale 13 6 4 3 27:22 22
8 Yokohama F. Marinos 13 5 6 2 20:14 21
9 Urawa Reds 13 7 0 6 21:27 21
10 Okayama 13 5 1 7 15:21 16
11 Nagoya Grampus 13 4 2 7 15:21 14
12 Cerezo Osaka 13 3 5 5 13:23 14
13 Shimizu S-Pulse 13 4 2 7 10:22 14
14 Kyoto 13 3 4 6 17:23 13
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 13 3 3 7 16:21 12
16 Gamba Osaka 13 2 6 5 14:21 12
17 Verdy 13 2 5 6 11:22 11
18 Chiba 13 2 4 7 15:24 10
19 Mito 13 2 3 8 12:25 9
20 Avispa Fukuoka 13 2 1 10 13:24 7
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)