Sport Picks
VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg
Germany
DFB Pokal 2025/2026 MHPArena, Stuttgart 
Match Events
13'
13'
Makengo J.
15'
15'
Nartey N.
17'
17'
Manzambi J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with VfB Stuttgart advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freiburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Freiburg have managed 1.72 goals a game lately — VfB Stuttgart are scoring more at 2.55.
- 39% — that's where the model lands on VfB Stuttgart taking it.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor VfB Stuttgart, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
VfB Stuttgart Clean Sheet 13%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.55 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 23, 2026 DFB Pokal
VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart
3:1
Jan 18, 2025 Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart vs Freiburg
4:0
Aug 24, 2024 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs VfB Stuttgart
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
VfB Stuttgart Compare
Top Goalscorer Undav D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tomas T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13
Freiburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Eggestein M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
VfB Stuttgart 48 / 100
Freiburg 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
VfB Stuttgart Freiburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick VfB Stuttgart Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: VfB Stuttgart scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.
Freiburg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
Solid form: VfB Stuttgart remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
VfB Stuttgart VS Freiburg
3.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
VfB Stuttgart
(Home) 21 Aug
Hansa Rostock
0 : 4 VfB Stuttgart
15 Aug
Fulham
1 : 0 VfB Stuttgart
08 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1 Everton
01 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 2 Paris FC
29 Jul
Kickers Offenbach
1 : 8 VfB Stuttgart
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1 Everton
01 Aug
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 2 Paris FC
09 May
VfB Stuttgart
3 : 1 Bayer Leverkusen
26 Apr
VfB Stuttgart
1 : 1 Werder Bremen
23 Apr
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 1 Freiburg
Page 1 of 3
Freiburg
(Away) 20 Aug
Motherwell
1 : 3 Freiburg
15 Aug
Freiburg
3 : 0 Crystal Palace
08 Aug
Freiburg
2 : 0 Strasbourg
08 Aug
Freiburg
2 : 0 Strasbourg
31 Jul
Freiburg
0 : 3 Greuther Furth
Page 1 of 6
20 Aug
Motherwell
1 : 3 Freiburg
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2 Freiburg
30 Apr
Braga
2 : 1 Freiburg
26 Apr
Dortmund
4 : 0 Freiburg
23 Apr
VfB Stuttgart
2 : 1 Freiburg
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0
