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Victoria vs Olimpia

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Ceibeño, La Ceiba
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Garcia R.
28' Event
Hernandez A.
36'
Flores D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Victoria and Olimpia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Victoria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Victoria
20%
Draws
63%
Olimpia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Olimpia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

63% / High Confidence
  • Olimpia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Olimpia a 63% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Olimpia have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Victoria Clean Sheet 11%
Olimpia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Victoria Olimpia
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 7 22
Draws 6 6
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.33 1.85
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Victoria
2:1
Feb 16, 2026 Liga Nacional
Victoria vs Olimpia
2:1
Dec 6, 2025 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Victoria
3:0
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Nacional
Victoria vs Olimpia
2:3
May 18, 2025 Liga Nacional
Olimpia vs Victoria
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Victoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Blackburn R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Olimpia Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivas E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Victoria 10 / 100
Olimpia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Victoria Olimpia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Olimpia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Victoria's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Olimpia has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Victoria stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Victoria VS Olimpia
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Victoria

(Home)
01 May
Victoria
1 : 2
Real Espana
27 Apr
Genesis FC
2 : 0
Victoria
22 Apr
Victoria
2 : 1
Juticalpa
20 Apr
Olancho
1 : 0
Victoria
17 Apr
Victoria
2 : 3
Motagua
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Olimpia

(Away)
30 Aug
Estrella
2 : 2
Olimpia
28 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 1
Saprissa
23 Aug
Olancho
1 : 1
Olimpia
21 Aug
Alianza
1 : 3
Olimpia
16 Aug
Olimpia
3 : 1
Motagua
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)