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Stadium Background

Vietnam U23 vs Philippines U23

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship U23 Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta
Vietnam U23 Logo

Vietnam U23

2 - 1
FT
Philippines U23 Logo

Philippines U23

Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Sub
Merino J. In: Rosquillo J.
Out: Merino J.
36' Event
Mariona J.
Assist: Leddel N.
41' Event
Nguyen Dinh Bac
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Vietnam U23
15%
Draws
59%
Philippines U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philippines U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vietnam U23 come out ahead of Philippines U23 on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Vietnam U23 taking it.
  • Vietnam U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Vietnam U23, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Vietnam U23 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Vietnam U23 Clean Sheet 16%
Philippines U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vietnam U23 Philippines U23
Matches Played 39 31
Wins 25 10
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.51 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2026 Asian Games
Philippines U23 vs Vietnam U23
0:2
Jul 25, 2025 ASEAN Championship U23
Vietnam U23 vs Philippines U23
2:1
Aug 22, 2023 ASEAN Championship U23
Vietnam U23 vs Philippines U23
1:0
May 8, 2022 Southeast Asian Games
Vietnam U23 vs Philippines U23
0:0
Aug 20, 2017 Southeast Asian Games
Philippines U23 vs Vietnam U23
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vietnam U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nguyen Dinh Bac
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nguyen Xuan Bac
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Philippines U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mariona J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vietnam U23 36 / 100
Philippines U23 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vietnam U23 Philippines U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vietnam U23 found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (39 games).

Philippines U23 has conceded goals in 71% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Vietnam U23 stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vietnam U23 VS Philippines U23
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vietnam U23

(Home)
22 Sept
Vietnam U23
0 : 2
Uzbekistan U23
18 Sept
Philippines U23
0 : 2
Vietnam U23
15 Sept
Vietnam U23
1 : 1
Kuwait U23
31 Mar
China U23
1 : 0
Vietnam U23
28 Mar
Thailand U23
1 : 0
Vietnam U23
Page 1 of 8

Philippines U23

(Away)
22 Sept
Philippines U23
2 : 1
Kuwait U23
18 Sept
Philippines U23
0 : 2
Vietnam U23
15 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
5 : 1
Philippines U23
09 Sept
Philippines U23
4 : 0
Nepal U23
06 Sept
Philippines U23
1 : 0
Tajikistan U23
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Vietnam U23 2
Philippines U23 1
Indonesia U23 2
Thailand U23 1
Final
Vietnam U23 1
Indonesia U23 0
Philippines U23 1
Thailand U23 3