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Vigor Senigallia vs Ancona - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vigor Senigallia host Ancona in the Serie D - Group F. This one's hard to separate. Ancona have shipped 0.9 goals a game lately, while Vigor Senigallia have conceded 1.34 and scored 1.76. Past meetings favor Ancona slightly — 1-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.44) point toward Ancona. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Vigor Senigallia
20%
Draws
47%
Ancona
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ancona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ancona lately — more wins on the board than Vigor Senigallia.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 16%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vigor Senigallia Ancona
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 17
Draws 9 8
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.76 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Ancona
0:1
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Vigor Senigallia
0:0
Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Vigor Senigallia
3:1
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Ancona
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vigor Senigallia 31 / 100
Ancona 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vigor Senigallia Ancona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ancona Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vigor Senigallia's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ancona has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Vigor Senigallia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vigor Senigallia VS Ancona
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vigor Senigallia

(Home)
18 Oct
Santegidiese
0 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
11 Oct
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 2
Atletico Ascoli
04 Oct
Teramo
6 : 4
Vigor Senigallia
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

Ancona

(Away)
18 Oct
Ancona
2 : 3
Fossombrone
11 Oct
Giulianova
0 : 2
Ancona
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1
Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0
Sporting Trestina
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1
Ancona
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 8 6 2 0 17:5 20
2 Teramo 8 6 1 1 20:11 19
3 Vigor Senigallia 8 5 1 2 17:12 16
4 Foligno 8 5 1 2 9:7 16
5 Notaresco Calcio 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
6 Ancona 8 4 2 2 12:8 14
7 Atletico Ascoli 8 4 1 3 13:10 13
8 Fossombrone 8 4 1 3 10:13 13
9 Montecchio Gallo 8 3 2 3 9:9 11
10 Giulianova 8 3 1 4 11:11 10
11 Lanciano FC 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Termoli 8 3 1 4 6:7 10
13 Santegidiese 8 2 2 4 7:11 8
14 Pietralunga 8 2 2 4 5:9 8
15 Maceratese 8 2 1 5 9:16 7
16 Recanatese 8 1 3 4 11:14 6
17 Angelana 8 1 1 6 5:12 4
18 Sporting Trestina 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)