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AI Match Summary
Vigor Senigallia host Fossombrone in the Serie D - Group F. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Fossombrone have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while Vigor Senigallia have conceded 1.38 and scored 2. Head-to-head, Vigor Senigallia have won 1 to Fossombrone's 0, with 4 draws. They last met on Feb 8, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.56 - 1.06) back Vigor Senigallia to edge this. Vigor Senigallia in a double chance market carries the safer edge.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Vigor Senigallia has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Fossombrone.
- Model forecasts a 40% win probability edge for Vigor Senigallia.
- League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D - Group F provide steady trend data.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vigor Senigallia | Fossombrone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 12 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.38 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vigor Senigallia scored in 80% of their last 30 games.
Fossombrone let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Vigor Senigallia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Fossombrone lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |