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Vigor Senigallia vs Montegiorgio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Rotondo F.
Own Goal
45' Event
Kerjota S.
77' Event
Rotondo F.

AI Match Summary

Vigor Senigallia in this Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vigor Senigallia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Vigor Senigallia
15%
Draws
16%
Montegiorgio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vigor Senigallia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vigor Senigallia lately — more wins on the board than Montegiorgio.
  • Model gives Vigor Senigallia a 69% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 68%
Montegiorgio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vigor Senigallia Montegiorgio
Matches Played 43 30
Wins 19 6
Draws 13 9
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.6 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Montegiorgio vs Vigor Senigallia
2:1
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Montegiorgio
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vigor Senigallia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kerjota S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rotondo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Montegiorgio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vigor Senigallia 95 / 100
Montegiorgio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vigor Senigallia Montegiorgio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vigor Senigallia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vigor Senigallia found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (43 games).

Recent resilience: Vigor Senigallia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Montegiorgio has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Vigor Senigallia VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vigor Senigallia

(Home)
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0
Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5
Vigor Senigallia
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 9

Montegiorgio

(Away)
14 May
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Montegiorgio
07 May
Montegiorgio
2 : 1
Vigor Senigallia
30 Apr
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Montegiorgio
23 Apr
Montegiorgio
0 : 1
Matese
16 Apr
Fano
3 : 1
Montegiorgio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)