Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023

Maria de Fonte

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vilar de Perdizes play Maria de Fonte in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vilar de Perdizes averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Maria de Fonte averaged 1 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. In past meetings, Vilar de Perdizes won 1, Maria de Fonte won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 19, 2023 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Vilar de Perdizes and 1.19 for Maria de Fonte. This points to a Vilar de Perdizes double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Vilar de Perdizes

30%

Draws

30%

Maria de Fonte

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vilar de Perdizes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Vilar de Perdizes picked up more points recently compared to Maria de Fonte.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Vilar de Perdizes Clean Sheet 20%

Maria de Fonte Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vilar de Perdizes	Maria de Fonte
Matches Played	35	32
Wins	10	8
Draws	13	7
Losses	12	17
Goals Scored	1.17	1
Goals Conceded	1.2	1.88
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Vilar de Perdizes vs Maria de Fonte

Possession: 54% - 54% Cards: 4 - 4

2:0

Nov 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A

Maria de Fonte vs Vilar de Perdizes

Possession: 50% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilar de Perdizes 40 / 100

Maria de Fonte 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vilar de Perdizes Maria de Fonte

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vilar de Perdizes or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vilar de Perdizes attacking → ← attacking Maria de Fonte

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilar de Perdizes scored in 69% of their last 35 games.

Maria de Fonte let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Vilar de Perdizes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Maria de Fonte lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 31

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Vianense	26	16	5	5	37:19	53
2	Amarante FC	26	14	9	3	43:25	51
3	Tirsense	26	14	2	10	39:25	44
4	Pevidem	26	13	4	9	37:30	43
5	Vila Mea	26	11	6	9	39:30	39
6	Vilar de Perdizes	26	8	12	6	33:32	36
7	Brito	26	9	8	9	21:28	35
8	Dumiense	26	9	7	10	34:35	34
9	Merelinense	26	8	9	9	32:32	33
10	Pedras Salgadas	26	8	8	10	27:28	32
11	Desportivo Moncao	26	7	6	13	34:45	27
12	Maria de Fonte	26	6	7	13	27:45	25
13	Sao Martinho	26	5	9	12	24:34	24
14	GD Braganca	26	5	6	15	20:39	21