Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Villa Nova AC vs Tombense

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2025 Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes, Nova Lima
Villa Nova AC Logo

Villa Nova AC

0 - 2
FT
Tombense Logo

Tombense

Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Fabricio Dias
Assist: Joao Vitor
34'
Joao Vitor
39'
Sub
Joao Vitor In: Lucas Mila
Out: Joao Vitor
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 2025 game between Villa Nova AC and Tombense finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tombense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Villa Nova AC
35%
Draws
24%
Tombense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Villa Nova AC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tombense come out ahead of Villa Nova AC on wins alone.
  • Villa Nova AC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Mineiro 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Tombense have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Villa Nova AC Clean Sheet 20%
Tombense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Nova AC Tombense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 11
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.1 1.31
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2025 Mineiro
Villa Nova AC vs Tombense
0:2
Feb 24, 2024 Mineiro
Villa Nova AC vs Tombense
0:3
Apr 1, 2023 Mineiro
Tombense vs Villa Nova AC
3:2
Mar 26, 2023 Mineiro
Villa Nova AC vs Tombense
1:2
Feb 27, 2023 Mineiro
Tombense vs Villa Nova AC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Nova AC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Tombense Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabricio Dias
1 Goals
Assists Leader da Conceicao Araujo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa Nova AC 42 / 100
Tombense 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Nova AC Tombense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Villa Nova AC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Tombense let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.

Villa Nova AC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Villa Nova AC VS Tombense
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 25%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa Nova AC

(Home)
15 Aug
Democrata SL
1 : 3
Villa Nova AC
12 Aug
Villa Nova AC
0 : 1
Democrata SL
08 Aug
Aymores
3 : 3
Villa Nova AC
02 Aug
Villa Nova AC
1 : 0
Aymores
26 Jul
Valeriodoce
0 : 1
Villa Nova AC
Page 1 of 6

Tombense

(Away)
27 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
CRAC
21 Jun
CRAC
1 : 0
Tombense
14 Jun
Tombense
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
30 May
Porto-BA
1 : 3
Tombense
23 May
Tombense
1 : 1
Real Noroeste
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tombense 8 5 1 2 8:5 16
2 Atletico-MG 8 4 4 0 9:2 16
3 Betim FC 8 4 3 1 12:5 15
4 Uberlandia 8 2 3 3 10:10 9
Promotion - Mineiro 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 America MG 8 3 4 1 14:5 13
2 Athletic Club 8 4 0 4 12:12 12
3 Democrata GV 8 3 2 3 8:9 11
4 Itabirito 8 2 2 4 7:11 8
Promotion - Mineiro 2025 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cruzeiro 8 3 2 3 11:9 11
2 Pouso Alegre 8 2 2 4 7:15 8
3 Aymores 8 1 4 3 3:5 7
4 Villa Nova AC 8 1 1 6 4:17 4
Promotion - Mineiro 2025 (Play Offs)