Sport Picks

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Villa vs Maroons

Uganda Uganda

Uganda Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Otim A.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Villa
20%
Draws
24%
Maroons
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Villa come out ahead of Maroons on wins alone.
  • Villa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Villa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Villa, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%
Maroons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Maroons
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 9
Draws 6 11
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.5 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Uganda Cup
Villa vs Maroons
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 Premier League
Villa vs Maroons
2:0
Dec 6, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs Villa
1:0
Mar 9, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Maroons
0:2
Oct 24, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs Villa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Otim A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Maroons Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa 95 / 100
Maroons 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Maroons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villa's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Villa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Maroons conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Villa VS Maroons
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa

(Home)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
Page 1 of 6

Maroons

(Away)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
12 May
Maroons
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
28 Apr
Uganda Revenue
2 : 2
Maroons
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Kitara 6
Bunyaruguru 0
Express FC 4
Red Devo 0
NEC FC 2
Lugazi 0
Vipers 4
Iganga United 0
Uganda Revenue 3
Tapoh 0
Kampala City 5
Onduparaka 0
Happy Boy 1
Six Oclock 0
Villa 1
Maroons 0
Quarter-finals
Kitara 3
Express FC 0
NEC FC 0
Vipers 1
Uganda Revenue 3
Kampala City 2
Happy Boy 0
Villa 1
Semi-finals
Kitara 1
Vipers 1
Uganda Revenue 0
Villa 3
Final
Kitara 2
Villa 1