Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Villa Valle vs Vogherese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Semprini M.
57' Event
Carminati M.
82'
Panarello A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Villa Valle and Vogherese finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villa Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Villa Valle
30%
Draws
0%
Vogherese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Villa Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Villa Valle come out ahead of Vogherese on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Villa Valle's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Villa Valle Clean Sheet 68%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Valle Vogherese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 2
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 22
Goals Scored 1.1 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.43 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Villa Valle vs Vogherese
2:0
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs Villa Valle
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Semprini M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carminati M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Vogherese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa Valle 95 / 100
Vogherese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Valle Vogherese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vogherese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Away concern: Vogherese has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Villa Valle's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Villa Valle VS Vogherese
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 2.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa Valle

(Home)
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 3
Oltrepo
19 Apr
Caldiero Terme
1 : 1
Villa Valle
12 Apr
Villa Valle
1 : 1
Ciserano-Bergamo
02 Apr
AC Milan U23
1 : 1
Villa Valle
Page 1 of 6

Vogherese

(Away)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)