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Vinhais vs Maria de Fonte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
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Match Events

63' Event
Goncalves S.

AI Match Summary

Maria de Fonte in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maria de Fonte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Vinhais
15%
Draws
85%
Maria de Fonte
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Maria de Fonte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Vinhais haven't matched Maria de Fonte's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Vinhais Clean Sheet 16%
Maria de Fonte Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vinhais Maria de Fonte
Matches Played 10 29
Wins 0 9
Draws 0 3
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 0.5 1.03
Goals Conceded 3.2 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Vinhais vs Maria de Fonte
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vinhais Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Maria de Fonte Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalves S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vinhais 36 / 100
Maria de Fonte 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vinhais Maria de Fonte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maria de Fonte Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Maria de Fonte conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Difficult form: Maria de Fonte registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Vinhais scored in 50% of their last 10 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Vinhais VS Maria de Fonte
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vinhais

(Home)
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
13 Sept
Vila Mea
4 : 0
Vinhais
06 Sept
Vinhais
1 : 2
Chaves B
23 Aug
Tirsense
3 : 0
Vinhais
16 Aug
Vinhais
0 : 1
Maria de Fonte
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Maria de Fonte

(Away)
20 Sept
Paredes
5 : 1
Maria de Fonte
13 Sept
Maria de Fonte
0 : 4
Braga B
06 Sept
Brito
2 : 1
Maria de Fonte
30 Aug
Maria de Fonte
1 : 0
Uniao Nogueirense
23 Aug
Maria de Fonte
0 : 1
Celoricense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 GD Braganca 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Tirsense 4 3 0 1 7:2 9
3 Chaves B 4 3 0 1 5:4 9
4 Braga B 4 2 2 0 8:3 8
5 AD Limianos 4 2 2 0 8:5 8
6 Vila Mea 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
7 Celoricense 4 2 1 1 3:2 7
8 CDC Montalegre 4 1 3 0 5:3 6
9 Rebordosa 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
10 Brito 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
11 Ponte da Barca 4 1 0 3 4:8 3
12 Maria de Fonte 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
13 Maia Lidador 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Vinhais 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)