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Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre Prediction & H2H Stats

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
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Match Events

86' Event
Delgado A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Vinotinto and Nueve de Octubre finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vinotinto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Vinotinto
20%
Draws
28%
Nueve de Octubre
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vinotinto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Vinotinto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Vinotinto are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 68%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vinotinto Nueve de Octubre
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 11
Draws 8 12
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.3 1.14
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
1:0
Jun 9, 2026 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
2:1
Apr 8, 2026 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
0:1
Oct 16, 2024 Serie B
Vinotinto vs Nueve de Octubre
5:2
Sep 1, 2024 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Vinotinto
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vinotinto Compare

Top Goalscorer Delgado A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Nueve de Octubre Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vinotinto 77 / 100
Nueve de Octubre 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vinotinto Nueve de Octubre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vinotinto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Vinotinto remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Vinotinto scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Nueve de Octubre conceded in 52% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vinotinto VS Nueve de Octubre
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vinotinto

(Home)
02 Oct
San Antonio
0 : 0
Vinotinto
24 Sept
Independiente Juniors
2 : 3
Vinotinto
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
11 Sept
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 2
Vinotinto
03 Sept
Vinotinto
4 : 2
San Antonio
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Nueve de Octubre

(Away)
03 Oct
Nueve de Octubre
0 : 1
Atletico FC
26 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 0
San Antonio
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Atletico FC
2 : 2
Nueve de Octubre
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico FC 28 12 13 3 34:18 49
2 Vinotinto 28 13 8 7 36:21 47
3 Independiente Juniors 28 12 11 5 35:23 47
4 Nueve de Octubre 28 11 12 5 31:20 45
5 CD Cuenca Juniors 28 10 8 10 22:31 38
6 San Antonio 28 7 12 9 26:32 33
Promotion - Liga Pro 2027 (First stage)