Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vinotinto vs Orense

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Vinotinto Logo

Vinotinto

2 - 1
FT
Orense Logo

Orense

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Lugo J.
45' Event
Mena A.
(Penalty)
63' Event
Lugo J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Vinotinto
30%
Draws
31%
Orense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vinotinto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Vinotinto have won more games recently than Orense.
  • Model gives Vinotinto a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Vinotinto have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Orense, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 68%
Orense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vinotinto Orense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 6
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.21 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 27, 2026 Copa Ecuador
Vinotinto vs Orense
2:1
Jul 27, 2025 Liga Pro
Vinotinto vs Orense
0:1
Apr 5, 2025 Liga Pro
Orense vs Vinotinto
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vinotinto Compare

Top Goalscorer Lugo J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Orense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vinotinto 77 / 100
Orense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vinotinto Orense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vinotinto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Orense let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Vinotinto scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Recent resilience: Vinotinto stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Orense's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Vinotinto VS Orense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vinotinto

(Home)
22 Aug
Dep. Santo Domingo
0 : 0
Vinotinto
13 Aug
Vinotinto
0 : 0
LDU Portoviejo
08 Aug
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 2
Vinotinto
05 Aug
Vinotinto
2 : 3
U. Catolica
29 Jul
Vinotinto
0 : 1
San Antonio
Page 1 of 6

Orense

(Away)
23 Aug
Barcelona SC
3 : 0
Orense
16 Aug
Orense
2 : 0
Dep. Cuenca
09 Aug
Delfin
1 : 1
Orense
01 Aug
Libertad
3 : 0
Orense
26 Jul
Orense
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito -
Aucas -
Astillero -
U. Catolica -
Independiente del Valle -
Gualaceo -
LDU Portoviejo -
Delfin -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -