Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vinotinto vs U. Catolica

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Vinotinto Logo

Vinotinto

2 - 3
FT
U. Catolica Logo

U. Catolica

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Fajardo J.
19' Event
Sanchez C.
29' Event
Lucero L.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-3. This leg finished 2-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Vinotinto
30%
Draws
32%
U. Catolica
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vinotinto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • U. Catolica have won more games recently than Vinotinto.
  • Model gives Vinotinto a 38% chance of winning this.
  • U. Catolica arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor U. Catolica, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and U. Catolica have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Vinotinto Clean Sheet 68%
U. Catolica Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vinotinto U. Catolica
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.34 1.77
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Copa Ecuador
Vinotinto vs U. Catolica
2:3
Jul 19, 2025 Liga Pro
U. Catolica vs Vinotinto
3:0
Mar 29, 2025 Liga Pro
Vinotinto vs U. Catolica
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vinotinto Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

U. Catolica Compare

Top Goalscorer Fajardo J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vinotinto 59 / 100
U. Catolica 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vinotinto U. Catolica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vinotinto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.33 goals when they meet.

Vinotinto went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Vinotinto scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: U. Catolica conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vinotinto VS U. Catolica
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vinotinto

(Home)
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
11 Sept
CD Cuenca Juniors
0 : 2
Vinotinto
03 Sept
Vinotinto
4 : 2
San Antonio
27 Aug
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Atletico FC
22 Aug
Dep. Santo Domingo
0 : 0
Vinotinto
Page 1 of 6

U. Catolica

(Away)
15 Sept
U. Catolica
2 : 1
Orense
10 Sept
Astillero
0 : 1
U. Catolica
06 Sept
Delfin
0 : 1
U. Catolica
03 Sept
U. Catolica
1 : 1
Aucas
29 Aug
Independiente del Valle
2 : 2
U. Catolica
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle -
Gualaceo -
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -