Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Virtus Francavilla vs Fidelis Andria

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H Stadio Giovanni Paolo II
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Virtus Francavilla play Fidelis Andria in the Serie D - Group H. It looks like a close match. Recently, Virtus Francavilla averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Fidelis Andria averaged 1 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. In past meetings, Virtus Francavilla won 2, Fidelis Andria won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Virtus Francavilla and 1.25 for Fidelis Andria. This points to a Virtus Francavilla double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Virtus Francavilla
26%
Draws
36%
Fidelis Andria
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Virtus Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Virtus Francavilla picked up more points recently compared to Fidelis Andria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 19%
Fidelis Andria Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 52%
Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Virtus Francavilla Fidelis Andria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.2 1
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Fidelis Andria
0:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Fidelis Andria vs Virtus Francavilla
1:2
Jan 26, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Fidelis Andria
0:2
Sep 29, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Fidelis Andria vs Virtus Francavilla
0:1
Feb 1, 2023 Serie C - Group C
Fidelis Andria vs Virtus Francavilla
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Virtus Francavilla Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Fidelis Andria Compare

Top Goalscorer Allushaj E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ciraci M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Virtus Francavilla 38 / 100
Fidelis Andria 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Virtus Francavilla Fidelis Andria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Virtus Francavilla or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Virtus Francavilla attacking → ← attacking Fidelis Andria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Virtus Francavilla scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Fidelis Andria let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Virtus Francavilla went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Fidelis Andria lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 40
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414