Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Noevir Stadium

Shimizu S-Pulse

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Vissel Kobe enters this J1 League 2026 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 60%. Vissel Kobe averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Shimizu S-Pulse shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Vissel Kobe, 2 wins for Shimizu S-Pulse, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 01.04.26 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.20 for Vissel Kobe and 1.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse, suggesting the primary value lies in the Vissel Kobe double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Vissel Kobe

25%

Draws

15%

Shimizu S-Pulse

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Vissel Kobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence

Vissel Kobe picked up more points recently compared to Shimizu S-Pulse.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Vissel Kobe Clean Sheet 23%

Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Vissel Kobe	Shimizu S-Pulse
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	18	11
Draws	2	3
Losses	11	16
Goals Scored	1.61	1.2
Goals Conceded	1.26	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

01.04.26 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Possession: 58% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

2:0

21.02.26 J1 League

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 55% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

27.09.25 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Possession: 59% - 45% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

25.05.25 J1 League

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Vissel Kobe

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 4 - 3

3:2

06.07.22 J1 League

Vissel Kobe vs Shimizu S-Pulse

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Vissel Kobe

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Shimizu S-Pulse

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vissel Kobe Compare

Top Goalscorer Nagato K.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Shimizu S-Pulse Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A

0 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vissel Kobe 59 / 100

Shimizu S-Pulse 16 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Vissel Kobe Shimizu S-Pulse

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vissel Kobe Win (1)

Secondary Pick Vissel Kobe & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Vissel Kobe is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Vissel Kobe 66%

Shimizu S-Pulse 12%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

Shimizu S-Pulse will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Vissel Kobe's attacks.

Vissel Kobe 57%

Shimizu S-Pulse 16%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Vissel Kobe to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Vissel Kobe 60%

Shimizu S-Pulse 15%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Vissel Kobe vary their attacking width.

Vissel Kobe 63%

Shimizu S-Pulse 14%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Shimizu S-Pulse, allowing Vissel Kobe's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Vissel Kobe 54%

Shimizu S-Pulse 17%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Vissel Kobe, while Shimizu S-Pulse takes risks to salvage a result.

Vissel Kobe 69%

Shimizu S-Pulse 17%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vissel Kobe attacking → ← attacking Shimizu S-Pulse

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vissel Kobe have found the net in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Shimizu S-Pulse have conceded at least one goal in 87% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Vissel Kobe remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Shimizu S-Pulse suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 36

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21