Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitesse vs Jong Ajax

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 GelreDome, Arnhem
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Sub
Heerkens J. In: El Hani A.
Out: Heerkens J.
25'
Schwarz R.
34'
Butera E.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 game between Vitesse and Jong Ajax finished 6-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitesse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Vitesse
30%
Draws
23%
Jong Ajax
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitesse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitesse carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Vitesse taking it.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Vitesse Clean Sheet 20%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitesse Jong Ajax
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 10 4
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.43 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.18 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Vitesse vs Jong Ajax
6:1
Dec 1, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
2:0
Apr 14, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
1:1
Sep 21, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Vitesse vs Jong Ajax
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitesse Compare

Top Goalscorer Zonneveld N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tahaui A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Jong Ajax Compare

Top Goalscorer Peters T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitesse 76 / 100
Jong Ajax 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitesse Jong Ajax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitesse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.

Vitesse's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Jong Ajax has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Vitesse stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitesse VS Jong Ajax
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitesse

(Home)
07 Aug
Vitesse
1 : 1
Waalwijk
18 Jul
Vitesse
1 : 2
Al Jazira
15 Jul
Vitesse
0 : 0
AEK
11 Jul
Vitesse
1 : 0
Dortmund II
03 Jul
Vitesse
1 : 1
Roda
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Jong Ajax

(Away)
07 Aug
Dordrecht
2 : 1
Jong Ajax
17 Jul
Jong AZ Alkmaar
3 : 0
Jong Ajax
24 Apr
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Jong Utrecht
17 Apr
Jong PSV
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
13 Apr
Jong Ajax
1 : 2
TOP Oss
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Den Haag 38 29 2 7 90:37 89
2 Cambuur 38 23 9 6 75:48 78
3 Willem II 38 20 8 10 59:42 68
4 De Graafschap 38 18 9 11 74:58 63
5 Almere City 38 18 4 16 78:63 58
6 Waalwijk 38 16 10 12 71:59 58
7 Jong PSV 38 17 5 16 66:64 56
8 Roda 38 14 13 11 59:54 55
9 Den Bosch 38 14 9 15 65:69 51
10 Dordrecht 38 12 11 15 48:56 47
11 Eindhoven FC 38 14 5 19 51:69 47
12 Jong Utrecht 38 12 10 16 58:62 46
13 Venlo 38 13 6 19 50:58 45
14 FC Emmen 38 12 9 17 58:72 45
15 Vitesse 38 15 11 12 64:55 44
16 TOP Oss 38 11 11 16 54:64 44
17 Jong AZ Alkmaar 38 12 4 22 61:76 40
18 Helmond Sport 38 10 9 19 42:62 39
19 Maastricht 38 9 11 18 41:73 38
20 Jong Ajax 38 9 8 21 50:73 35
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)