Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitesse vs Jong PSV

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie GelreDome, Arnhem
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
de Carvalho F.
Assist: Bannis N.
39' Event
Dumbili S.
Assist: Mulders B.
46'
Sub
Bro Hansen M. In: Jones A.
Out: Bro Hansen M.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Vitesse and Jong PSV finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vitesse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Vitesse
20%
Draws
29%
Jong PSV
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vitesse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitesse carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vitesse's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Vitesse Clean Sheet 16%
Jong PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitesse Jong PSV
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.69 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Vitesse vs Jong PSV
3:1
Mar 20, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Vitesse
0:2
Nov 25, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Vitesse vs Jong PSV
3:1
Dec 20, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Vitesse
6:4
Oct 25, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Vitesse vs Jong PSV
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitesse Compare

Top Goalscorer de Carvalho F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sellouf A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Jong PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Dumbili S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitesse 57 / 100
Jong PSV 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitesse Jong PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitesse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong PSV has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.80 goals when they meet.

Vitesse scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Solid form: Vitesse remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vitesse VS Jong PSV
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitesse

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitesse
3 : 1
Jong PSV
12 Sept
Roda
1 : 0
Vitesse
04 Sept
Vitesse
2 : 1
TOP Oss
28 Aug
Den Bosch
1 : 4
Vitesse
21 Aug
Vitesse
0 : 3
Almere City
Page 1 of 6

Jong PSV

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitesse
3 : 1
Jong PSV
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Helmond Sport
3 : 1
Jong PSV
07 Sept
Jong PSV
3 : 1
Den Bosch
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 7 5 1 1 16:4 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Vitesse 7 4 1 2 13:9 13
6 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
7 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
8 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
9 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
10 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
11 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
12 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
13 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
14 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
15 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 11:14 7
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
18 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
19 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 7:18 4
20 Dordrecht 7 1 1 5 9:21 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)