Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Santarem

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Academia Vitoria SC
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes B play Santarem in the Liga 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria Guimaraes B averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1 conceded. Santarem averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes B won 1, Santarem won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Vitoria Guimaraes B and 1.06 for Santarem. This points to a Vitoria Guimaraes B double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
32%
Draws
25%
Santarem
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes B picked up more points recently compared to Santarem.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 22%
Santarem Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes B Santarem
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 9 10
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.13 0.87
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Santarem
1:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Santarem vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Machado J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes B 43 / 100
Santarem 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes B Santarem

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Guimaraes B or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria Guimaraes B attacking → ← attacking Santarem

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes B scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Santarem let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Vitoria Guimaraes B went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Santarem lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 31
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Amarante FC1494122:1131
2Academica1484223:1328
3CF Os Belenenses1475225:1626
4Mafra1452717:2417
5Vitoria Guimaraes B1445516:1717
6Varzim1442813:1914
7Santarem1424813:2010
8Trofense142487:1610