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Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Academia Vitoria SC, Guimarães
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Match Events

23'
Reko
30' Event
Nuninho
41'
Diarra M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Vitoria Guimaraes B and Trofense finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Trofense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Vitoria Guimaraes B
30%
Draws
31%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes B carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vitoria Guimaraes B's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Vitoria Guimaraes B Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes B Trofense
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.23 0.68
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
0:0
May 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
1:2
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Vitoria Guimaraes B
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Liga 3
Vitoria Guimaraes B vs Trofense
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes B Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaz M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Trofense Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuninho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diarra M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes B 95 / 100
Trofense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes B Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Guimaraes B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes B's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Trofense conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Vitoria Guimaraes B remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes B VS Trofense
1.38 Goals Scored 0.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes B

(Home)
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
07 Aug
Paredes
3 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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Trofense

(Away)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
05 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes B
0 : 0
Trofense
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)