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Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Leixoes U19

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato Nacional U19 2019/2020
Sat, Apr 18, 2020
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Campeonato Nacional U19 2019/2020 encounter between Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and Leixoes U19 promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Vitoria Guimaraes U19 averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in recent matches. Leixoes U19 shows a form average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Vitoria Guimaraes U19, 0 wins for Leixoes U19, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 01.12.21 ended in a 0:4 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.04 for Vitoria Guimaraes U19 and 1.06 for Leixoes U19, suggesting the primary value lies in the Vitoria Guimaraes U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19
21%
Draws
35%
Leixoes U19
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria Guimaraes U19 picked up more points recently compared to Leixoes U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Clean Sheet 22%
Leixoes U19 Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Leixoes U19
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.52 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

01.12.21 Campeonato Nacional U19
Leixoes U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
0:4
28.08.21 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Leixoes U19
2:1
09.05.21 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Leixoes U19
3:1
18.04.20 Campeonato Nacional U19
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 vs Leixoes U19
0:0
15.02.20 Campeonato Nacional U19
Leixoes U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Leixoes U19

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 44 / 100
Leixoes U19 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Leixoes U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Guimaraes U19 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 48%
Leixoes U19 28%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 42%
Leixoes U19 37%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 44%
Leixoes U19 35%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 46%
Leixoes U19 33%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 40%
Leixoes U19 39%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 51%
Leixoes U19 40%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 attacking → ← attacking Leixoes U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 have found the net in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Leixoes U19 have conceded at least one goal in 83% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.40 goals per match.

Vitoria Guimaraes U19 remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Leixoes U19 suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 40
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00