Sport Picks
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães 
Match Events
53'
53'
Barbero I.
Assist: Djouahra N.
64'
64'
Lee Hyun-ju
65'
65'
Sub
Flores M. In: Lebedenko O.
Out: Flores M.
AI Match Summary
Arouca in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arouca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Arouca lately — more wins on the board than Vitoria Guimaraes.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 20%
Arouca Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Guimaraes | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
0:1
Feb 7, 2026 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes
3:2
Aug 30, 2025 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
1:1
Jan 18, 2025 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
2:2
Aug 12, 2024 Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Vitoria Guimaraes
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vitoria Guimaraes Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Arouca Compare
Top Goalscorer Barbero I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vitoria Guimaraes 36 / 100
Arouca 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vitoria Guimaraes Arouca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Arouca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vitoria Guimaraes found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).
Defensive concern: Arouca conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Vitoria Guimaraes has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Vitoria Guimaraes VS Arouca
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Vitoria Guimaraes
(Home) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0 Vitoria Guimaraes
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0 Chaves
Page 1 of 3
Arouca
(Away) 19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
13 Sept
Arouca
1 : 2 Santa Clara
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
29 Aug
Arouca
2 : 1 Maritimo
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 2 Arouca
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0 Arouca
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Arouca
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
