Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Braga

Portugal Portugal

League Cup 2025/2026 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Mendes J.
17' Event
Dorgeles M.
35'
Grillitsch F.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes in this League Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Vitoria Guimaraes
30%
Draws
47%
Braga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Braga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Braga have won more games recently than Vitoria Guimaraes.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Braga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vitoria Guimaraes, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 23%
Braga Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes Braga
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 9 17
Draws 6 10
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.41 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
3:2
Jan 10, 2026 League Cup
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Braga
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Braga
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Braga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Guimaraes Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndoye A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Braga Compare

Top Goalscorer Dorgeles M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes 37 / 100
Braga 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes Braga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Braga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Vitoria Guimaraes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Braga conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes VS Braga
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes

(Home)
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1
Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0
Nacional
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Braga

(Away)
20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0
Braga
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1
Braga
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sporting CP 5
Alverca 1
FC Porto 1
Vitoria Guimaraes 3
Benfica 3
Tondela 0
Braga 5
Santa Clara 0
Semi-finals
Sporting CP 1
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Benfica 1
Braga 3
Final
Vitoria Guimaraes 2
Braga 1