Sport Picks
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães 
Match Events
29'
29'
Sub
Gomes A. In: Mandic I.
Out: Gomes A.
46'
46'
Sub
Prieto K. In: JP
Out: Prieto K.
57'
57'
Sub
Jatta A. In: Araujo H.
Out: Jatta A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal matchup, with the score ending 0-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Guimaraes
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Vitoria Guimaraes lately — more wins on the board than Casa Pia.
- Model gives Vitoria Guimaraes a 39% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 68%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Guimaraes | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 25 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.36 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.12 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 0.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
0:0
May 11, 2026 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
0:1
Dec 28, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Vitoria Guimaraes
0:0
Mar 1, 2025 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
1:0
Sep 28, 2024 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Vitoria Guimaraes
1:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vitoria Guimaraes 77 / 100
Casa Pia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vitoria Guimaraes Casa Pia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Vitoria Guimaraes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 72% of their last 25 games.
Defensive concern: Casa Pia conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Vitoria Guimaraes went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Casa Pia's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Vitoria Guimaraes VS Casa Pia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 2.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Vitoria Guimaraes
(Home) 25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0 Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 5
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0 Chaves
Page 1 of 3
Casa Pia
(Away) 20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2 Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2 Casa Pia
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
08 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0 Casa Pia
01 Aug
Leixoes
6 : 2 Casa Pia
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20:4 | 24 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20:9 | 18 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 18 |
| 4 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 6 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3:17 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4:12 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
