Sport Picks
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estrela da Amadora
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio D. Afonso Henriques 
AI Match Summary
Vitoria Guimaraes play Estrela da Amadora in the Liga Portugal 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vitoria Guimaraes averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Estrela da Amadora averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes won 3, Estrela da Amadora won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 14, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.94 for Estrela da Amadora. This points to a Vitoria Guimaraes double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Vitoria Guimaraes picked up more points recently compared to Estrela da Amadora.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.94 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Guimaraes | Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 26 |
| Wins | 12 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.15 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vitoria Guimaraes Compare
Estrela da Amadora Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Estrela da Amadora let in goals in 81% of their last 26 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Vitoria Guimaraes went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Estrela da Amadora lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |