Sport Picks
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães 
Match Events
12'
12'
Sub
Silva G. In: Nogueira M.
Out: Silva G.
52'
52'
Andrade T.
Assist: Vonic L.
57'
57'
Sub
Doucet L. In: Samu
Out: Doucet L.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal game between Vitoria Guimaraes and Moreirense finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
30%
41%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Moreirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Moreirense haven't matched Vitoria Guimaraes's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Vitoria Guimaraes's way, sitting at 60%.
- Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Vitoria Guimaraes Clean Sheet 20%
Moreirense Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vitoria Guimaraes | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 6 | 8 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense
1:1
Jan 30, 2026 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Liga Portugal
Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
2:2
Nov 3, 2024 Liga Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vitoria Guimaraes Compare
Top Goalscorer Borevkovic T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Moreirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Andrade T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vitoria Guimaraes 58 / 100
Moreirense 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vitoria Guimaraes Moreirense
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Vitoria Guimaraes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Moreirense let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Vitoria Guimaraes has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Vitoria Guimaraes VS Moreirense
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Vitoria Guimaraes
(Home) 25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
12 Sept
Academico Viseu
2 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0 Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
08 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 1 Arouca
01 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
2 : 0 Chaves
Page 1 of 3
Moreirense
(Away) 20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
14 Sept
Moreirense
3 : 1 Maritimo
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 1 Moreirense
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
16 Aug
Arouca
4 : 0 Moreirense
25 Jul
Gil Vicente
2 : 2 Moreirense
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
