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Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Valadares Gaia W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga BPI Women Academia Vitoria SC, Guimarães
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Guimaraes W host Valadares Gaia W in the Liga BPI Women. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Valadares Gaia W have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Vitoria Guimaraes W have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.07. Head-to-head, Vitoria Guimaraes W have won 0 to Valadares Gaia W's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Oct 3, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (0.88 - 1.06) back Valadares Gaia W to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Vitoria Guimaraes W
30%
Draws
47%
Valadares Gaia W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Valadares Gaia W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Valadares Gaia W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Liga BPI Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Vitoria Guimaraes W Clean Sheet 20%
Valadares Gaia W Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Guimaraes W Valadares Gaia W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 11 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Taça da Liga Women
Valadares Gaia W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W
1:1
Apr 3, 2026 Liga BPI Women
Vitoria Guimaraes W vs Valadares Gaia W
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga BPI Women
Valadares Gaia W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Taça da Liga Women
Valadares Gaia W vs Vitoria Guimaraes W
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Guimaraes W 36 / 100
Valadares Gaia W 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Guimaraes W Valadares Gaia W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valadares Gaia W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Vitoria Guimaraes W scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Valadares Gaia W let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Valadares Gaia W registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Guimaraes W VS Valadares Gaia W
0.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Guimaraes W

(Home)
03 Oct
Valadares Gaia W
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes W
19 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0 : 3
Torreense W
12 Sept
Sporting W
2 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes W
10 May
Braga W
2 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes W
02 May
Vitoria Guimaraes W
0 : 0
Torreense W
Page 1 of 6

Valadares Gaia W

(Away)
03 Oct
Valadares Gaia W
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes W
26 Sept
Valadares Gaia W
1 : 0
Rio Ave W
20 Sept
Racing Power W
1 : 0
Valadares Gaia W
12 Sept
Valadares Gaia W
1 : 3
FC Porto W
29 Aug
Valadares Gaia W
0 : 2
Braga W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Torreense W 3 3 0 0 14:0 9
2 Sporting W 3 2 1 0 7:0 7
3 SL Benfica W 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
4 Braga W 3 1 2 0 6:1 5
5 FC Porto W 3 1 2 0 4:2 5
6 Racing Power W 3 1 1 1 1:3 4
7 Valadares Gaia W 3 1 0 2 2:4 3
8 Vitoria Guimaraes W 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
9 Rio Ave W 3 0 0 3 0:6 0
10 Maritimo W 3 0 0 3 0:18 0
Relegation - Liga BPI Women (Relegation Group)