Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vitoria Setubal vs Amora

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D Estádio do Bonfim, Setúbal
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Furtado E.
28' Event
Marques P.
32' Event
Duque T.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D game between Vitoria Setubal and Amora finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Amora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Vitoria Setubal
30%
Draws
29%
Amora
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vitoria Setubal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Vitoria Setubal carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 36.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Vitoria Setubal Clean Sheet 19%
Amora Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Setubal Amora
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 17 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.63 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.68 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vitoria Setubal vs Amora
1:3
Mar 11, 2023 Liga 3
Amora vs Vitoria Setubal
2:0
Dec 3, 2022 Liga 3
Vitoria Setubal vs Amora
0:0
Dec 12, 2021 Liga 3
Amora vs Vitoria Setubal
1:0
Aug 14, 2021 Liga 3
Vitoria Setubal vs Amora
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Setubal Compare

Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.84

Amora Compare

Top Goalscorer Furtado E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marques P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria Setubal 32 / 100
Amora 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Setubal Amora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Amora Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria Setubal's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Amora has conceded goals in 77% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Vitoria Setubal has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria Setubal VS Amora
1.6 Goals Scored 0.75
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.75
80% Over 1.5 75%
60% Over 2.5 63%
60% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria Setubal

(Home)
20 Sept
Alcains
0 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
13 Sept
Vitoria Setubal
2 : 2
Juv. Evora
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
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Amora

(Away)
20 Sept
Amora
3 : 4
Uniao Da Serra
13 Sept
1º Dezembro
1 : 1
Amora
06 Sept
Amora
0 : 1
Real SC
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
01 May
Covilha
1 : 1
Amora
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sintrense 4 3 1 0 11:3 10
2 Imortal 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
3 Serpa 3 1 2 0 5:3 5
4 Lagoa 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
5 Juv. Evora 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
6 Real SC 2 1 1 0 6:5 4
7 Amora 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
8 Portel 4 0 4 0 6:6 4
9 Vitoria Setubal 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
10 GD Alcochetense 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
11 Aljustrelense 3 0 2 1 2:6 2
12 1º Dezembro 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
13 Lajense 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
14 Santa Clara B 2 0 0 2 2:5 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)