Sport Picks

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Vitoria vs Fortaleza

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Barradao, Salvador
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Luiz Fernando
Assist: Santos de Souza R. H.
41'
Mucuri M.
46'
Sub
Mucuri M. In: Mailton
Out: Mucuri M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Vitoria
35%
Draws
45%
Fortaleza
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Vitoria average 1.45 goals a game right now, well clear of Fortaleza's 1.24.
  • Win probability leans Fortaleza's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Vitoria, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Vitoria here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Vitoria Clean Sheet 17%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vitoria Fortaleza
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 13
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.45 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Vitoria vs Fortaleza
2:1
Jun 3, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
2:0
Apr 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Fortaleza
2:1
Feb 20, 2025 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Renato Kayzer
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Fernando
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vitoria 20 / 100
Fortaleza 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vitoria Fortaleza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vitoria's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Fortaleza let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Vitoria has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vitoria VS Fortaleza
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vitoria

(Home)
03 Sept
Vitoria
0 : 2
Vasco
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Vitoria
27 Aug
Vasco
1 : 0
Vitoria
23 Aug
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
16 Aug
Vitoria
1 : 0
Botafogo RJ
Page 1 of 6

Fortaleza

(Away)
31 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Operario-PR
23 Aug
Criciuma
0 : 2
Fortaleza
19 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Juventude
0 : 0
Fortaleza
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Vitoria 1
Ceara 0
ABC 4
Juazeirense 0
Confianca 1
Fortaleza 2
Sport Recife 1
ASA 0
Semi-finals
Vitoria 10
ABC 5
Fortaleza 3
Sport Recife 2
Final
Vitoria 4
Fortaleza 2