Sport Picks

Stadium Background

VPS vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
VPS Logo

VPS

4 - 0
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Smyth L.
Assist: Kouassivi-Benissan K.
32' Event
Ogunniyi O.
Assist: Kouassivi-Benissan K.
63'
Sub
Stroud A. In: Huttunen A.
Out: Stroud A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Veikkausliiga game between VPS and Mariehamn finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward VPS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
VPS
15%
Draws
51%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mariehamn

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • VPS carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
VPS Clean Sheet 17%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric VPS Mariehamn
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 2.21 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Veikkausliiga
VPS vs Mariehamn
4:0
May 2, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs VPS
0:1
Sep 21, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs VPS
2:1
Aug 1, 2025 Veikkausliiga
VPS vs Mariehamn
1:1
Jun 14, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs VPS
1:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

VPS Compare

Top Goalscorer Smyth L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogunniyi O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Mariehamn Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

VPS 31 / 100
Mariehamn 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
VPS Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 4:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: VPS scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: VPS remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

VPS VS Mariehamn
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

VPS

(Home)
31 Aug
VPS
0 : 1
Lahti
22 Aug
Ilves
0 : 1
VPS
14 Aug
VPS
1 : 3
TPS
08 Aug
Jaro
1 : 3
VPS
02 Aug
VPS
0 : 1
Inter Turku
Page 1 of 6

Mariehamn

(Away)
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
15 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
SJK
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)