Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vrhnika vs Tolmin

Slovenia Slovenia

3. SNL - West 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Tolmin in this 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tolmin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Vrhnika
30%
Draws
34%
Tolmin
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vrhnika

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Tolmin haven't matched Vrhnika's recent run of results.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Vrhnika taking it.
  • Regular 3. SNL - West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).
  • History favors Tolmin here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Vrhnika Clean Sheet 14%
Tolmin Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vrhnika Tolmin
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 3.5 2.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 3.50 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
0:1
Apr 22, 2023 3. SNL - West
Vrhnika vs Tolmin
1:1
Oct 1, 2022 3. SNL - West
Tolmin vs Vrhnika
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vrhnika 35 / 100
Tolmin 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vrhnika Tolmin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vrhnika scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Tolmin conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Vrhnika went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vrhnika VS Tolmin
3.5 Goals Scored 2.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vrhnika

(Home)
08 Jul
Grosuplje
0 : 1
Vrhnika
23 May
Rudar Trbovlje
1 : 4
Vrhnika
16 May
Vrhnika
2 : 3
Sencur
09 May
Sobec Lesce
1 : 5
Vrhnika
02 May
Vrhnika
5 : 1
Ljubljana Svoboda
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Tolmin

(Away)
23 May
Ziri
0 : 3
Tolmin
16 May
Tolmin
0 : 0
Fama Vipava
09 May
Tolmin
3 : 0
Zidgrad Idrija
02 May
Skofja Loka
1 : 3
Tolmin
25 Apr
Tolmin
5 : 0
IB 1975 Ljubljana
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vrhnika26175463:2156
2Sencur26166446:2754
3Dob26155654:2950
4Tolmin26143947:3345
5Izola26126853:3942
6Rudar Trbovlje26118756:3941
7IB 1975 Ljubljana261131235:4436
8Sobec Lesce261061031:3236
9Skofja Loka26791037:4230
10Ziri26761330:5227
11Fama Vipava26681228:4226
12Ljubljana Svoboda26651530:5123
13Zidgrad Idrija26641634:5722
14Bistrc26541735:7119
Promotion - 2. SNL (Main)