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Várzea Grande EC vs Chapada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Várzea Grande EC Logo

Várzea Grande EC

2 - 5
FT
Chapada Logo

Chapada

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-0. The second leg ended 2-5.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Várzea Grande EC
15%
Draws
85%
Chapada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chapada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Chapada come out ahead of Várzea Grande EC on wins alone.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Chapada taking it.
  • Chapada arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Chapada, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Chapada here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 10%
Chapada Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Várzea Grande EC Chapada
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 6 15
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.21 1.81
Goals Conceded 2.14 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
3:0
Sep 27, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Várzea Grande EC vs Chapada
2:5
Jan 17, 2026 Matogrossense
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
3:1
Jul 31, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Chapada vs Várzea Grande EC
1:0
Jul 24, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Várzea Grande EC vs Chapada
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Várzea Grande EC 10 / 100
Chapada 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Várzea Grande EC Chapada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Várzea Grande EC scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Chapada let in goals in 54% of their last 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Várzea Grande EC VS Chapada
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Várzea Grande EC

(Home)
20 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Santa Cruz MT
14 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
5 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
10 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 2
Uirapuru
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
Page 1 of 6

Chapada

(Away)
31 Oct
Sorriso EC
0 : 1
Chapada
24 Oct
Uirapuru
0 : 2
Chapada
14 Oct
Santa Cruz MT
0 : 2
Chapada
11 Oct
Chapada
1 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapada 8 6 1 1 16:4 19
2 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 5 1 2 12:7 16
3 Santa Cruz MT 8 4 0 4 17:12 12
4 Várzea Grande EC 8 2 0 6 12:25 6
5 Uirapuru 8 1 2 5 8:17 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 6 6 0 0 24:4 18
2 Sorriso EC 6 3 0 3 12:10 9
3 Cacerense 6 3 0 3 12:11 9
4 Campo Novo 6 0 0 6 3:26 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)