Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Várzea Grande EC vs Luverdense

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Henan
90' Event
Hassen J.

AI Match Summary

The Matogrossense game between Várzea Grande EC and Luverdense finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Luverdense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Várzea Grande EC
30%
Draws
35%
Luverdense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Luverdense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Várzea Grande EC's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 68%
Luverdense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Várzea Grande EC Luverdense
Matches Played 27 31
Wins 7 13
Draws 6 10
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.11 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.74 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 Matogrossense
Várzea Grande EC vs Luverdense
0:2
Mar 21, 2019 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Várzea Grande EC
3:0
Mar 13, 2016 Matogrossense
Várzea Grande EC vs Luverdense
2:0
Feb 4, 2016 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Várzea Grande EC
5:1
Apr 26, 2015 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Várzea Grande EC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Várzea Grande EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Luverdense Compare

Top Goalscorer Henan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hassen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Várzea Grande EC 46 / 100
Luverdense 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Várzea Grande EC Luverdense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Várzea Grande EC found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

Luverdense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 45% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Várzea Grande EC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Várzea Grande EC VS Luverdense
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Várzea Grande EC

(Home)
20 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Uniao Rondonopolis
13 Sept
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 2
Várzea Grande EC
08 Feb
Cuiaba
0 : 1
Várzea Grande EC
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
01 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 2
Sport Sinop
Page 1 of 6

Luverdense

(Away)
26 Jul
ABC
4 : 1
Luverdense
18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0
ABC
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0
Luverdense
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0
Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)