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Várzea Grande EC vs Santa Cruz MT - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Várzea Grande EC Logo

Várzea Grande EC

2 - 5
FT
Santa Cruz MT Logo

Santa Cruz MT

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-5. The second leg ended 2-5.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Várzea Grande EC
15%
Draws
85%
Santa Cruz MT
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Santa Cruz MT

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Santa Cruz MT come out ahead of Várzea Grande EC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Santa Cruz MT a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Santa Cruz MT arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Santa Cruz MT, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Várzea Grande EC Clean Sheet 10%
Santa Cruz MT Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Várzea Grande EC Santa Cruz MT
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 7 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.2 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 20, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Várzea Grande EC vs Santa Cruz MT
2:5
Sep 13, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Santa Cruz MT vs Várzea Grande EC
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Várzea Grande EC 10 / 100
Santa Cruz MT 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Várzea Grande EC Santa Cruz MT

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santa Cruz MT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Várzea Grande EC scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz MT conceded in 71% of 24 recent games.

Santa Cruz MT lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Várzea Grande EC VS Santa Cruz MT
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
3.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Várzea Grande EC

(Home)
20 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Santa Cruz MT
14 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
5 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
10 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 2
Uirapuru
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
27 Sept
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Chapada
Page 1 of 6

Santa Cruz MT

(Away)
20 Oct
Várzea Grande EC
2 : 5
Santa Cruz MT
18 Oct
Santa Cruz MT
4 : 1
Uirapuru
14 Oct
Santa Cruz MT
0 : 2
Chapada
07 Oct
Uniao Rondonopolis
1 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
30 Sept
Chapada
2 : 0
Santa Cruz MT
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chapada 8 6 1 1 16:4 19
2 Uniao Rondonopolis 8 5 1 2 12:7 16
3 Santa Cruz MT 8 4 0 4 17:12 12
4 Várzea Grande EC 8 2 0 6 12:25 6
5 Uirapuru 8 1 2 5 8:17 5
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 6 6 0 0 24:4 18
2 Sorriso EC 6 3 0 3 12:10 9
3 Cacerense 6 3 0 3 12:11 9
4 Campo Novo 6 0 0 6 3:26 0
Promotion - Copa FMF (Mato Grosso) (Play Offs)