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VV Zwaluwen vs Excelsior Maassluis - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

VV Zwaluwen host Excelsior Maassluis in the Derde Divisie. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: VV Zwaluwen at 1.86 goals for, 1.11 against; Excelsior Maassluis at 1.57 for, 1.39 against. Past meetings favor Excelsior Maassluis slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 26, 2025, ending 0:1. xG projections (1.13 - 1.38) back VV Zwaluwen to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
VV Zwaluwen
15%
Draws
53%
Excelsior Maassluis
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Excelsior Maassluis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • VV Zwaluwen have won more games recently than Excelsior Maassluis.
  • Excelsior Maassluis are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
VV Zwaluwen Clean Sheet 17%
Excelsior Maassluis Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric VV Zwaluwen Excelsior Maassluis
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 13
Draws 2 4
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.86 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
VV Zwaluwen vs Excelsior Maassluis
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

VV Zwaluwen 20 / 100
Excelsior Maassluis 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
VV Zwaluwen Excelsior Maassluis

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Maassluis Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: VV Zwaluwen scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Excelsior Maassluis let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: VV Zwaluwen stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

VV Zwaluwen VS Excelsior Maassluis
1.63 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

VV Zwaluwen

(Home)
03 Oct
VV Zwaluwen
1 : 0
Achilles Veen
26 Sept
VV Noordwijk
1 : 2
VV Zwaluwen
23 Sept
VV Zwaluwen
0 : 1
Purmersteijn
19 Sept
VV Zwaluwen
1 : 0
Lisse
12 Sept
Groene Ster
1 : 0
VV Zwaluwen
Page 1 of 6

Excelsior Maassluis

(Away)
03 Oct
VVSB
2 : 3
Excelsior Maassluis
26 Sept
Excelsior Maassluis
1 : 0
Blauw Geel
22 Sept
Sportlust
0 : 2
Excelsior Maassluis
19 Sept
Excelsior Maassluis
5 : 0
Roosendaal
12 Sept
Achilles Veen
2 : 3
Excelsior Maassluis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Excelsior 31 8 6 1 1 22:6 19
2 ACV Assen 8 6 1 1 21:8 19
3 VV Scherpenzeel 8 6 1 1 15:9 19
4 Genemuiden 8 6 0 2 19:9 18
5 Harkemase Boys 8 5 2 1 15:11 17
6 TEC 8 5 1 2 27:16 16
7 Sportlust 8 4 3 1 16:13 15
8 Sparta Nijkerk 8 4 2 2 22:16 14
9 Purmersteijn 8 4 2 2 15:11 14
10 VV Hoogeveen 8 4 1 3 22:17 13
11 ADO 20 Heemskerk 8 3 1 4 15:18 10
12 USV Hercules 8 3 0 5 12:20 9
13 DVS '33 Ermelo 8 1 2 5 10:15 5
14 VV DOVO 8 1 2 5 9:19 5
15 Eemdijk 7 1 0 6 9:26 3
16 Staphorst 8 0 3 5 10:18 3
17 HVV Hollandia 7 0 1 6 13:23 1
18 SVZW Wierden 8 0 1 7 9:26 1
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rijnvogels 8 6 2 0 25:7 20
2 VV Noordwijk 8 6 1 1 15:2 19
3 Lisse 8 6 1 1 14:6 19
4 Excelsior Maassluis 8 5 2 1 16:7 17
5 RKSV UDI 19 8 4 2 2 14:9 14
6 GOES 8 4 2 2 16:17 14
7 Dongen 8 4 1 3 21:17 13
8 VV Zwaluwen 8 4 1 3 7:10 13
9 Gemert 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
10 Blauw Geel 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
11 Roosendaal 8 3 0 5 13:16 9
12 SV Poortugaal 8 3 0 5 8:13 9
13 UNA 8 1 5 2 12:13 8
14 TOGB 8 2 2 4 13:18 8
15 VVSB 8 2 1 5 10:16 7
16 Groene Ster 8 1 3 4 12:20 6
17 Achilles Veen 8 1 0 7 7:20 3
18 EVV 8 0 2 6 8:19 2
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)